Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas

On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the post-war era confronts a famine-ridden -- and possibly nuclear-armed-totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea, and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. Out of these, the future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.

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Examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the US and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the Korean peninsula is explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption, and "muddling through," in which North Korea makes regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation. Noland has been a visiting scholar at the Korea Development Institute. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow, has been the Senior Economist for International Economics at the Council of Economic Advisers, as well as a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University, the University of Southern California, Tokyo University, Saitama University, the University of Ghana, and a visiting scholar at the Korea Development Institute. He has written many articles on international economics and is the coauthor of Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations (1998), Reconcilable Differences? United States-Japan Economic Conflict with C. Fred Bergsten (1993), Pacific Basin Developing Countries: Prospects for the Future (1990), and Japan in the World Economy with Bela Balassa (1988), the coeditor of Pacific Dynamism and the International Economic System (1993), and editor of Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula (1998).