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Overview
Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology, and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether more accurate models of predicting voting behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the winner will be.
Synopsis
Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology, and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether more accurate models of predicting voting behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the winner will be.
Booknews
Based in large part on the predictive articles presented in the October 1996 issue of the , political scientists present, unrevised, eight forecasting models which they used to evaluate the possibilities of the 1996 Presidential election and append explorations of the ramifications the actual results has upon their models. Interestingly, all of the models correctly predicted the election of Bill Clinton and the mean error of the models was only two percentage points. Also included are applications of the models to the elections of 2000. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)