Breaking the China-Taiwan Impasse

Tensions between China and Taiwan are not likely to abate in the foreseeable future. The question of Taiwan's sovereignty is the major point of friction, and the continuing impasse between China and Taiwan is worrisome. Zagoria presents perspectives from Washington, Beijing, and Taipei on cross-strait tensions, exploring ways to break the current standoff. Tensions between China and Taiwan are not likely to abate in the foreseeable future. The question of Taiwan's sovereignty is the major point of friction, and the continuing impasse between China and Taiwan is worrisome. Should critical political negotiations falter, relations are likely to take on stronger military overtones, and the PRC may well develop a sense of urgency about Taiwan drifting towards independence.

These, at least, are the broad conclusions drawn from the ongoing dialogues among top U.S., Chinese, and Taiwanese figures, sponsored by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy. This Track II project provides a forum for top policy analysts from each country to discuss trilateral relations in a frank and constructive manner, and is an effort to explore means of peacefully resolving the current impasse. Among the more significant findings is that the more serious risks of conflict will probably occur in the distant future, hinging on whether economic integration can gradually lead to a reduction of political tensions, and that the United States should continue to oppose any declaration of independence by Taiwan and any use of force by China.

Zagoria presents perspectives from Washington, Beijing, and Taipei on cross-strait tensions, exploring ways to break the current standoff.

Foreign Affairs

This book, the contributions of American, Taiwanese, and Chinese foreign-policy experts to a series of roundtables sponsored by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, provides broad perspectives and substantive details on the difficult triangular relationship. The volume's balanced prose (even in the insider accounts by former officials) makes it hard to keep in mind that cross-strait relations could degenerate into a horrible conflict that would present for Washington an impossible dilemma; the contributors demonstrate that civility is possible even in debates that arouse intense nationalistic passions. Its title, meanwhile, reflects the surge in optimism after the Democratic Progressive Party rose to power in 2000 and its president, Chen Shui-bian, promised that his administration would not seek independence. Since then, the situation has become grimmer, thanks in part to the Taiwanese legislature's decision to open the way for referendums on constitutional changes that could amount to a declaration of independence. Although the book does not cover these latest developments, it does show that a restoration of the earlier status quo could bring about a civil and stable relationship.

DONALD S. ZAGORIA is Professor of Government at Hunter College. He wrote the seminal work on the Sino-Soviet conflict and has written numerous articles on U.S.-China, U.S.-Soviet, and Sino-Soviet relations.