Energy Developments in the Middle East

The Middle Eastern and North African region (MENA) dominates world energy exports today and will likely do so for decades to come, even if world consumers make steady progress in conservation, renewable energy sources, and increases from gas, coal, and nuclear power. The MENA region, however, has been the scene of both internal crises and external conflicts. On several occasions, these crises have affected either the flow of MENA energy exports or the development of energy production and export capacity. The politics, economics, and social dynamics that shape threats to regional stability are complex. Cordesman details the factors behind these diverse forces and outlines current supply levels and future trends, taking each of these variables into consideration.

The MENA area includes at least 22 states, with a combined population of nearly 300 million, each with different political, economic, demographic, and security conditions and needs. It is divided into at least four sub-regions including the Maghreb (Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia); the Levant and the Arab-Israeli confrontation states (Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria); the Gulf (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman); and the Red Sea states (Yemen, the Sudan, and Somalia). This important guide outlines the forces affecting each sub-region, including supply, demand, and financing, and forecasts the likely impact that different scenarios would have on energy resources under varying world conditions.

Cordesman (Center for Strategic and International Studies) analyzes the levels of oil expected to be exported by the 22 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, trends in oil imports by the United States, and the growing global dependence on Middle Eastern energy exports. After examining the political, economic, and demographic pressures on Middle Eastern energy production, he overviews each country's stability and readiness to develop its energy resources. The primary data sources are the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy, and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Annotation ©2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

ANTHONY H. CORDESMAN is Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a military analyst for ABC News. A frequent commentator on National Public Radio, he is the author of numerous books on security issues and has served in a number of senior positions in the US government.