Preparing For Sudden Change In North Korea

North Korea poses difficult challenges for the United States. The full extent of the North Korean nuclear arsenal is unknown; tens of thousands of U.S. forces are deployed on the Korean peninsula in support of U.S. commitments to South Korea; and the peninsula sits in a strategically vital region, where the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea all have important interests at stake. And the Kim Jong-Il government is perhaps the world's most difficult to read or even see.

Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea focuses on how to manage one of the most central unknowns: the prospect of change in North Korea's leadership. Paul B. Stares and Joel S. Wit outline three scenarios of succession —managed, contested, and failed —and offer policy recommendations for dealing with potentially fractious leadership change.
Stares and Wit consider the challenges that these scenarios would pose to domestic institutions and regional security, the proliferation of nuclear arms, jumpstarting the economy, and providing humanitarian assistance.

North Korea poses difficult challenges for the United States. The full extent of the North Korean nuclear arsenal is unknown; tens of thousands of U.S. forces are deployed on the Korean peninsula in support of U.S. commitments to South Korea; and the peninsula sits in a strategically vital region, where the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea all have important interests at stake. And the Kim Jong-Il government is perhaps the world's most difficult to read or even see.

Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea focuses on how to manage one of the most central unknowns: the prospect of change in North Korea's leadership. Paul B. Stares and Joel S. Wit outline three scenarios of succession -- managed, contested, and failed -- and offer policy recommendations for dealing with potentially fractious leadership change. Stares and Wit consider the challenges that these scenarios would pose to domestic institutions and regional security, the proliferation of nuclear arms, jumpstarting the economy, and providing humanitarian assistance.

Paul B. Stares is the General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention and director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Joel S. Wit is adjunct senior research fellow at Columbia University's Weatherhead East Asia Institute. He is a former State Department official who worked on U.S. policy toward North Korea responsible for implementing the 1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework.