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Overview
Shapira offers a definitive account of the classical conception of risky decision making, which derives behavioral prescriptions from a calculation of both the value and the likelihood of possible outcomes. He then demonstrates how theories in this vein have been historically at odds with empirical observations. Risk Taking reports the results of an extensive survey of seven hundred managers that probed their attitudes and beliefs about risk and examined how they had actually made decisions in the face of uncertainty. The picture that emerges is of a dynamic, flexible process in which each manager's personal expertise and perceptions play profound roles. Managerial strategies are continually modified to suit changing circumstances. Rather than formulating probability estimates, executives create potential scenarios based not only on the possible outcomes but also on the many arbitrary factors inherent in their own situations. As Shapira notes, risk taking propensities vary among managers, and the need to maintain control and avoid particularly dangerous results exercises a powerful influence. Shapira also examines the impact of organizational structure, long-term management objectives, and incentives on decision making.Editorials
Booknews
Shapira offers an account of the classical conception of risky decision making, then demonstrates how theories in this vein have been historically at odds with empirical observations. He reports the results of a survey of 700 managers which examined their attitudes and beliefs about risk; the picture that emerges is of a dynamic, flexible process in which personal expertise and perceptions play profound roles. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)Book Details
Published
December 1, 1994
Publisher
New York : Russell Sage Foundation, c1995.
Pages
174
Format
Hardcover
ISBN
9780871547668