The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update

Previous editions are cited in Books for College Libraries, 3d ed.. The third edition of a pessimistic environmental classic presents the essential parts of the original analysis—published in 1972 by four MIT scientists using system dynamics theory and computer modeling—and summarizes relevant data and insights of the past three decades. The authors write that their main goal is to restate the 1972 argument in a way that's more understandable and better supported by examples that have emerged since then. They don't claim to predict the future, but instead present 10 scenarios for how the 21st century might evolve given current growth trends, emphasizing that likely damage to air, water, ozone, fisheries, forests, etc. can be reduced by smart policy now. Annotation ©2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Publishers Weekly

Updated for the second time since 1992, this book, by a trio of professors and systems analysts, offers a pessimistic view of the natural resources available for the world's population. Using extensive computer models based on population, food production, pollution and other data, the authors demonstrate why the world is in a potentially dangerous "overshoot" situation. Put simply, overshoot means people have been steadily using up more of the Earth's resources without replenishing its supplies. The consequences, according to the authors, may be catastrophic: "We... believe that if a profound correction is not made soon, a crash of some sort is certain. And it will occur within the lifetimes of many who are alive today." After explaining overshoot, the book discusses population and industrial growth, the limits on available resources, pollution, technology and, importantly, ways to avoid overshoot. The authors do an excellent job of summarizing their extensive research with clear writing and helpful charts illustrating trends in food consumption, population increases, grain production, etc., in a serious tome likely to appeal to environmentalists, government employees and public policy experts. (June) Copyright 2004 Reed Business Information.

Donella Meadows, who died unexpectedly in 2001, was a systems analyst and adjunct professor of Environmental Studies at Dartmouth College and wrote the nationally syndicated newspaper column "The Global Citizen."

Jorgen Randers is a policy analyst, professor and former President of the Norwegian School of Management. He is also the former Deputy Director General of WWF International. Randers lives in Oslo, Norway.

Dennis Meadows is a professor of Systems Management and director of the Institute for Policy and Social Science Research at the University of New Hampshire. He lives in Durham, New Hampshire.