Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover from an Iraqi Civil War
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Overview
"Iraq is rapidly descending into all-out civil war. Unfortunately, the United States probably will not be able to just walk away from the chaos. Even setting aside the humanitarian nightmare that will ensue, a full-scale civil war would likely consume more than Iraq: historically, such massive conflicts have often had highly deleterious effects on neighboring countries and other outside states. Spillover from an Iraq civil war could be disastrous."
Thus begins this sobering analysis of what the near future of Iraq could look like, and what America can do to reduce the threat of wider conflict. Preventing spillover of the Iraqi conflict into neighboring states must be a top priority. In explaining how that can be accomplished, Daniel Byman and Kenneth Pollack draw on their own considerable expertise as well as relevant precedents.
The authors scrutinize several recent civil wars, including Lebanon, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Bosnia. After synthesizing those experiences into lessons on how civil wars affect other nations, Byman and Pollack draw from them to produce recommendations for U.S. policy. Even while the Bush Administration attempts to prevent further deterioration of the situation in Iraq, it needs to be planning how to deal with a full-scale civil war if one develops.
Synopsis
"Iraq is rapidly descending into all-out civil war. Unfortunately, the United States probably will not be able to just walk away from the chaos. Even setting aside the humanitarian nightmare that will ensue, a full-scale civil war would likely consume more than Iraq: historically, such massive conflicts have often had highly deleterious effects on neighbouring countries and other outside states. Spillover from an Iraqi civil war could be disastrous."
Thus begins this sobering but essential analysis of what the near future of Iraq could look like, and what the United States can do to reduce the threat of a wider conflict. Preventing spillover of the Iraqi conflict into neighboring states must be a top priority. In explaining how that can be accomplished, Daniel Byman and Kenneth Pollack draw on their own considerable expertise as well as relevant precedents.
The authors scrutinize several recent civil wars-including conflicts in Lebanon, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Kosovo, and current struggles in Africa-for lessons on how civil wars can affect other nations. They draw from those experiences in developing recommendations for what the United States should do to contain spillover. It won't be easy, and history suggests the odds are against success. Options are difficult and imperfect. But even while the Bush administration attempts to prevent further deterioration of the situation in Iraq, it needs to plan for a full-scale civil war if one develops.
About the Author:
Daniel L. Byman directs the Security Studies Program and the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service
About theAuthor:
Kenneth M. Pollack is research director for the Saban Center