Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century

Escalation is a natural tendency in any form of human competition, and today's security environment demands that the United States be prepared for a host of escalatory threats. This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decisionmaking.

Kevin Pollpeter (MA, International Policy Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies) is a research assistant at RAND whose research interests include Asian and Chinese security issues and nonproliferation issues.

Roger Cliff (Ph.D., International Relations, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University) is an Associate Political Scientist, RAND, Washington DC. Areas of research include U.S. policy toward China, Chinese arms transfers, technological progress in China, and Chinese military technology.