Malay-Muslim Insurgency in Southern Thailand: Understanding the Conflict's Evolving Dynamic

Current unrest in the Malay-Muslim provinces of southern Thailand has captured growing national, regional, and international attention due to the heightened tempo and scale of rebel attacks, the increasingly jihadist undertone that has come to characterize insurgent actions, and the central government1s often brutal handling of the situation on the ground. This paper assesses the current situation and its probable direction.

Current unrest in the Malay-Muslim provinces of southern Thailand has captured growing national, regional, and international attention due to the heightened tempo and scale of rebel attacks, the increasingly jihadist undertone that has come to characterize insurgent actions, and the central government1s often brutal handling of the situation on the ground. This paper assesses the current situation and its probable direction.

Peter Chalk (PhD, political science, University of British Columbia) is an associate political scientist at RAND. Expertise includes South East Asia, international terrorism, terrorism and other emerging threats.